During the early Asian session on Friday, the NZD/USD pair has shown positive momentum, trading near 0.6120 and adding 0.13% for the day. The pair has found support around the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6115.

Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming New Zealand Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, scheduled for next week. This data could provide insights into potential monetary policy updates from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ).

In the US, the Labor Department reported on Thursday that Initial Jobless Claims reached their lowest level since September 2022. The figures showed a drop to 187,000 for the week ended January 13, down from the previous reading of 203,000. Continuing claims also performed well, hitting 1.806 million, surpassing the estimated 1.845 million.

The positive jobless claims data may complicate the Federal Reserve’s plans to cut interest rates in March, with investors reducing their rate-cut expectations to below 60% for the March meeting, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

On the New Zealand front, market expectations suggest that the RBNZ could commence its easing cycle in August 2024, targeting an OCR of 3.5% over the following 12 months. Traders are keenly awaiting the New Zealand inflation data next week, with Q4 headline CPI projected to decelerate from 5.6% to 4.7% YoY (0.6% QoQ).

Recent data from Business NZ indicated that New Zealand’s Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) eased to 43.1 in December, continuing the contraction trend in manufacturing activity for the ninth consecutive month.

Looking ahead, market participants will keep a close eye on the preliminary US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for January and Existing Home Sales. Additionally, speeches from FOMC members M. Daly (San Francisco) and M. Barr (Board of Governors) later in the day could provide further direction for the NZD/USD pair.